Archive for March, 2008
操作和分析
2008 Easter
Light House
Green Patch
转帖: 什么是次贷危机
在美国,贷款是非常普遍的现象,从房子到汽车,从信用卡到电话账单,贷款无处不在。当地人很少全款买房,通常都是长时间贷款。可是我们也知道,在这里失业和再就业是很常见的现象。这些收入并不稳定甚至根本没有收入的人,他们怎么买房呢?因为信用等级达不到标准,他们就被定义为次级贷款者。
大约从10年前开始,那个时候贷款公司漫天的广告就出现在电视上、报纸上、街头,抑或在你的信箱里塞满诱人的传单:
“你想过中产阶级的生活吗?买房吧!”
“积蓄不够吗?贷款吧!”
“没有收入吗?找阿牛贷款公司吧!”
“首付也付不起?我们提供零首付!”
“担心利息太高?头两年我们提供3%的优惠利率!”
“每个月还是付不起?没关系,头24个月你只需要支付利息,贷款的本金可以两年后再付!想想看,两年后你肯定已经找到工作或者被提升为经理了,到时候还怕付不起!”
“担心两年后还是还不起?哎呀,你也真是太小心了,看看现在的房子比两年前涨了多少,到时候你转手卖给别人啊,不仅白住两年,还可能赚一笔呢!再说了,又不用你出钱,我都相信你一定行的,难道我敢贷,你还不敢借?”
在这样的诱惑下,无数美国市民毫不犹豫地选择了贷款买房。(你替他们担心两年后的债务?向来自我感觉良好的美国市民会告诉你,演电影的都能当上州长,两年后说不定我还能竞选总统呢。)
阿牛贷款公司短短几个月就取得了惊人的业绩,可是钱都贷出去了,能不能收回来呢?公司的董事长——阿牛先生,那也是熟读美国经济史的人物,不可能不知道房地产市场也是有风险的,所以这笔收益看来不能独吞,要找个合伙人分担风险才行。于是阿牛找到美国经济界的带头大哥——投行。这些家伙可都是名字响当当的主儿(美林、高盛、摩根),他们每天做什么呢?就是吃饱了闲着也是闲着,于是找来诺贝尔经济学家,找来哈佛教授,用上最新的经济数据模型,一番鼓捣之后,弄出几份分析报告,从而评价一下某某股票是否值得买进,某某国家的股市已经有泡沫了,一群在风险评估市场里面骗吃骗喝的主儿,你说他们看到这里面有风险没?用脚都看得到!可是有利润啊,那还犹豫什么,接手搞吧!于是经济学家、大学教授以数据模型、老三样评估之后,重新包装一下,就弄出了新产品—— CDO(注: Collateralized Debt Obligation,债务抵押债券),说穿了就是债券,通过发行和销售这个CDO债券,让债券的持有人来分担房屋贷款的风险。
光这样卖,风险太高还是没人买啊,假设原来的债券风险等级是6,属于中等偏高。于是投行把它分成高级和普通CDO两个部分,发生债务危机时,高级 CDO享有优先赔付的权利。这样两部分的风险等级分别变成了4和8,总风险不变,但是前者就属于中低风险债券了,凭投行三寸不烂“金”舌,当然卖了个满堂彩!可是剩下的风险等级8的高风险债券怎么办呢?
于是投行找到了对冲基金,对冲基金又是什么人,那可是在全世界金融界买空卖多、呼风唤雨的角色,过的就是刀口舔血的日子,这点风险小意思!于是凭借着老关系,在世界范围内找利率最低的银行借来钱,然后大举买入这部分普通CDO债券,2006年以前,日本央行贷款利率仅为1.5%;普通CDO利率可能达到12%,所以光靠利息差对冲基金就赚得盆满钵满了。
这样一来,奇妙的事情发生了,2001年末,美国的房地产一路飙升,短短几年就翻了一倍多,这样一来就如同阿牛贷款公司开头的广告一样,根本不会出现还不起房款的事情,就算没钱还,把房子一卖还可以赚一笔钱。结果是从贷款买房的人,到阿牛贷款公司,到各大投行,到各个银行,到对冲基金人人都赚钱,但是投行却不太高兴了!当初是觉得普通CDO风险太高,才扔给对冲基金的,没想到这帮家伙比自己赚的还多,净值一个劲地涨,早知道自己留着玩了,于是投行也开始买入对冲基金,打算分一杯羹了。这就好像“老黑”家里有馊了的饭菜,正巧看见隔壁邻居那只讨厌的小花狗,本来打算毒它一把,没想到小花狗吃了不但没事,反而还越长越壮了,“老黑”这下可蒙了,难道馊了的饭菜营养更好,于是自己也开始吃了!
这下又把对冲基金乐坏了,他们是什么人,手里有1块钱,就能想办法借10块钱来玩的土匪啊,现在拿着抢手的CDO还能老实?于是他们又把手里的 CDO债券抵押给银行,换得10倍的贷款,然后继续追着投行买普通CDO。嘿,当初可是签了协议,这些CDO都归我们的!!!投行心里那个不爽啊,除了继续闷声买对冲基金之外,他们又想出了一个新产品,就叫CDS (注:Credit Default Swap,信用违约交换)好了,华尔街就是这些天才产品的温床:不是都觉得原来的CDO风险高吗,那我投保好了,每年从CDO里面拿出一部分钱作为保金,白送给保险公司,但是将来出了风险,大家一起承担。
保险公司想,不错啊,眼下CDO这么赚钱,1分钱都不用出就分利润,这不是每年白送钱给我们吗?干了!
对冲基金想,不错啊,已经赚了几年了,以后风险越来越大,光是分一部分利润出去,就有保险公司承担一半风险,干了!
于是再次皆大欢喜,CDS也卖火了!但是事情到这里还没有结束:因为“聪明”的华尔街人又想出了基于CDS的创新产品!我们假设CDS已经为我们带来了50亿元的收益,现在我新发行一个"三毛"基金,这个基金是专门投资买入CDS的,显然这个建立在之前一系列产品之上的基金的风险是很高的,但是我把之前已经赚的50亿元投入作为保证金,如果这个基金发生亏损,那么先用这50亿元垫付,只有这50亿元亏完了,你投资的本金才会开始亏损,而在这之前你是可以提前赎回的,首发规模500亿元。天哪,还有比这个还爽的基金吗?1元面值买入的基金,亏到0.90元都不会亏自己的钱,赚了却每分钱都是自己的!评级机构看到这个天才设想,简直是毫不犹豫:给予AAA评级!
结果这个“三毛”可卖疯了,各种养老基金、教育基金、理财产品,甚至其他国家的银行也纷纷买入。虽然首发规模是原定的500亿元,可是后续发行了多少亿,简直已经无法估算了,但是保证金50亿元却没有变。如果现有规模5000亿元,那保证金就只能保证在基金净值不低于0.99元时,你不会亏钱了。
当时间走到了2006年年底,风光了整整5年的美国房地产终于从顶峰重重摔了下来,这条食物链也终于开始断裂。因为房价下跌,优惠贷款利率的时限到了之后,先是普通民众无法偿还贷款,然后阿牛贷款公司倒闭,对冲基金大幅亏损,继而连累保险公司和贷款的银行,花旗、摩根相继发布巨额亏损报告,同时投资对冲基金的各大投行也纷纷亏损,然后股市大跌,民众普遍亏钱,无法偿还房贷的民众继续增多……最终,美国次贷危机爆发。
Jervis Bay Itinerary
潜水/游泳加 bush walking, 从 Governor Head 开始
潜水/游泳
4 km south of Huskisson and just east off Jervis Bay Road is the small resort town of Vincentia. It was originally South Huskisson but was renamed in 1952 after John Jervis, after whom Jervis Bay was named, who was also the Earl of St Vincent. Vincentia is a typical holiday town. There are the usual modern facilities, long beaches and the waters are good for fishing, windsurfing, sailing and diving.
Hyams Beach
Hyams Beach is a quiet village which claims to have the whitest sand in the world. The town was named after Michael Hyam who received a grant of 41 acres of waterfront land there in 1859. There is a concrete boat ramp off Cyrus St into the Bay. Hyams Beach is also a recommended diving spot, at least at high tide. From the boat ramp swim out due east for 100 metres. There are a number of shallow reefs in 8-10 metres of water and a variety of temperate marine life. The site is not suitable during easterly swells or north-easterly winds.
Booderee National Park Visitors Centre is open from 9.00 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. every day in the off-season and from 8.30 a.m. to 5.00 p.m.
Murrays Beach
Beyond Green Patch, along Jervis Bay Road, several short walking trails lead to Scottish Rocks and the Hole in the Wall. At its end is Murrays Beach, recognised as a highlight of the reserve. Jervis Bay Rd 尽头有一个巨大停车场, 从停车场出来以后右转,绕过一个岩石区才到 Murrays Beach. 过了 Beach 继续向右会到 Governor Head 的沙石悬崖区, 隔岸是 Bowen Island. A walking trail will take you on to Governor Head with its sandstone cliffs towering 90-120 metres above the waves. The trail continues south, as coastal scrub gives way to heathland, down to the end of Stony Creek Road then back north again to Murrays Beach. The cliffs here, with their coloured sandstone layers, extend all the way down the eastern coast of the peninsula and around to St George Head on the southern side of the promontory.
Both Green Patch and Murrays Beach boat ramp are recommended locations for diving. Snorkelling spots are abundant. There are shallow and deep-water rock reefs, sand zones, seagrass meadows, silty sand-flats, platforms and caves to explore.
Bowen Island
Bowen Island, opposite Governors Head, is 51 hectares of heath, woodland and tussock shrubland. The gnarled nature of the Island’s banksia are of particular interest. The area is populated with shearwaters, little penguins and their burrows. There are sites of archaeological importance including shell and bone middens and rock shelters. On the north of the island are World War II gun emplacement sites facing out to sea, mountings for heavy guns, lookout posts and underground complexes for barracks and magazine stores.
Cave Beach and Bherwerre Beach
Continue down to the end of Cave Beach Road (it is unsealed beyond the gardens) to the carpark. A trail will take you the 300 m through coastal scrub to the beautifully-situated Cave Beach campsite where swamphens can often be seen scavenging for food.
Wreck Bay
To the east is Wreck Bay where there are a series of sandy bays with sheltered beaches. Wreck Bay Rd 转接 Summercloud Bay Rd.
The rock platform is popular with snorkellers. Both Summercloud and Shelleys Point to the east are popular surfing spots.
The cliffline around to Governer Head commences here. The peninsula features a number of secluded sandy coves nestled in rock platforms, surrounded by dense eucalypt forest. The track south to St George Head passes through forest, woodland, coastal scrub and patches of rainforest with detours heading out to Shelleys Point, Whiting Beach, Blacks Harbour, Kittys Beach, Kittys Point and Corangamite on the coast.
If you follow the trail to its southernmost point there are spectacular ocean cliff views at the Head (4.1 km or 1.5 hours walk from the carpark). From there you can return north the way you came or head north-east to Brooks Lookout where there are great views of Steamers Head. Its 135-metre cliffs are thought to be the tallest on the NSW coast.
Alternatively, if you turn left off Wreck Bay Road into Stony Creek Road (unsealed) about 2.5 km south of Jervis Bay Road you will come to a branch road after about 1.3 km which will take you south to the Steamers Beach carpark. From here you can walk through the forest (2.3 km) down to what is a magnificent, isolated beach flanked by high cliffs and backed by steep sand dunes covered with tea-tree. Around Steamers Head is a heathland populated with a profusion of wildflowers in spring and summer.
If you return to Stony Creek Road it will take you out to the eastern coastline of the peninsula and on south to Stony Creek itself. A branch road leads to Cape St George Lighthouse on a cliff-top amidst heathland. About 700 m east of the branch road is the start of a walking track which passes through heath and flowers north to Governor Head.
Lake Windermere
Jervis Bay Rd 转上 Cave Beach Rd
可步行一周,附近还有个小湖 Lake Mckenzie, 都在 Booderee Botantic Garden 中
V 型大翻转
潜水点
寻找敏捷
文艺复兴三杰
物理方面,他发现了液压概念,提出连通器原理,发现惯性原理,发展了杠杆原理,甚至预示过核爆的威力。